Adaption and Mitigation to Climate Change

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an organization that monitors countries from around the world and how they are actively mitigating climate change. For Norway, the country seems to be on the right track. The most interesting things I saw, however, were Norway's contributions to the developing countries of Laos and Nepal. 

In Lao, Norway has been helping with waste management and proper legislation for electricity. Through their efforts, Norad has brought electricity to over 50,000 households in rural provinces (UNFCCC). This helps reduce emissions set forth by the citizens of Laos mainly because they no longer are burning tires, dung, and other dangerous sources of heat. Instead, they are simply using clean energy technology. 

In Nepal, Norway and Denmark are working together to provide all sorts of research and educational opportunities. Starting in 2007, the Alternative Energy Promotion Center has been providing Nepalese citizens with solar home systems, micro-hydro and more efficient cooking methods (UNFCCC). They are also providing great amounts of education to help with mitigation of improper burning techniques. 

While Norway has been helping countries in need, attention still needs to be paid to their own country. In the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" there are studies that indicate changes (or shutting down of) in the thermohaline circulation (THC), a naturally occurring current in the North Atlantic, would effect the current sea levels and temperatures mostly on the western coast of Europe. This could have potentially devastating socio-economic impacts mainly because Norway has so much coastline which is densely populated. 

Photo Taken From: http://9wows.com/tag/norway/

Norway also was an early signer of the Kyoto Protocol (April 29th, 1998) and ratification took place for Norway on May 30th 2002. Despite being an early signer, in 2005 Norway was still required to reduce emissions, but only by about 0.3%. 

The country of Norway seems to be making all the right steps towards improving their efforts in helping to mitigate climate change. According to the UNFCC, The Government of Norway's International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI), is the biggest investment the country has made towards climate change mitigation. This initiative is aimed towards reducing greenhouse gases and rates of deforestation in developing countries (such as the ones mentioned above). If America can be thought of as the "global police", Norway can be thought of as the "green happy helper". Norway's government seems to be very keen in understanding that developing countries play just as important of a role in alleviating greenhouse gas emissions as developed countries do. 

As far as Norway itself goes, I think climate adaption is unfortunately going to have to be an avenue that is highly pursued. If you look back at my graph for Total Emissions in a prior post, Norway hasn't done too much to harm the environment compare to the giants of America, India and China. Their government has made the right steps in moving towards clean energy, with the exception of the oil drilling that is taking place off the coast. Mitigation and awareness is very important, but the people of Norway need to understand that their coastlines and livelihoods lie in the hands of citizens of the world and not just themselves. One of the biggest threats for Norway is an increase in Sea Level, and citizens need to be prepared for that. 

Photo of the Glacier Waterfall in Svalbard, Norway, Taken From: http://www.vyperlook.com/awesome-cool/12-natural-ice-wonders

*Information for this post was taken from

http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/items/4903.php

http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/technology_transfer_nor.pdf

Impacts of Climate Change

This information was taken from: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-3-3-2.html This graph shows projected temperature increase until the year 2099 (top row), precipitation patterns (middle row) and estimated number of models that project increase in precipitation (bottom row)

The model projections for climate change throughout Europe indicate a warming that is consistent, if not slightly higher, than the projected warming models for overall global temperature. Based on a few different models, the projected temperature changes vary from the "best scenario" models at 2.3 degrees C to the "worst case" scenario 5.3 degrees C. This is an extremely large number and is also a bit scary, seeing as recent history shows us that the worst case scenario models have sometimes underestimated warming and global emission trends. Also the warming and precipitation in the northern parts of Europe, with countries such as Norway, will be greater in the winter time as opposed to the mediterranean summer which is projected to become hotter and drier. The other issue worthy of noting is the projections for the northern European countries to have much shorter winters, less snow cover and rapid ice melting near and on the Baltic Sea.

As far as future impacts and vulnerabilities for European countries, the situation differs greatly depending on what part of the European country is being focused on. With the increase in the summer temperatures of southern Europe comes an increasing demand for water, a higher risk of wild fires and potential crop failures. The extreme high temperatures could also negatively impact an area of great monetary value to these countries: tourism. In northern Europe, the increase in temperature during the winter time could have some positive aspects to it, such as less demand for heat and a longer growing season for crops. However, problems are soon to abound in the form of a changing ecosystem and landscape. 

To summarize the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC), there is a very high belief that widespread climate change is impacting the entire European continent. Because Europe occupies so much land mass, all the way from the mediterranean to the arctic circle, the impacts of the warming trend will vary from region to region. With a higher heat index in the Mediterranean, the demand for water supply with greatly increase; people will need more water to survive, as well as more water for crop production. On the other end of the spectrum, the increase in temperatures in the northernmost countries leaves room for melting ice and glaciers with can lead to an increase in coastal flooding. This puts many people along the coasts of countries, such as Norway, in a high danger flood zone. 

Norway has a danger of losing the longevity of their winters. This is a problem not only on the biological scale, but impacts different sectors of the Norwegian economy as well. A milder winter climate means that the boreal forests native to Norway will have a longer growing season, and the overall volume of standing trees is expected to increase. Along with the land temperature increase, the oceans and lakes will have a higher annual range of temperature as well. This leaves room for fish and plants who prefer a warmer climate, to head further north and increase in volume. Also, melting of Arctic seas ice will threaten species and could possibly increase ocean acidity as well. 

Because Norway is such a mountainous region, the impacts of a warmer climate will also be felt with the rising of the treeline into the now arctic tundra. This will effect the animals that have adapted to living in these high altitude environments as their territory slowly shrinks. The change in the mountain landscape will also greatly effect one of the countries biggest recreational activities: skiing. With shorter winters and less snow cover, the mountains can expect bad future ski seasons and may have to reconsider the avenues in which tourism should continue to explore. 

This information was obtained from the following:

IPCC “Climate Change 2007:  Working Group 1:  The physical science basis Chapter 11:  Regional Climate Projections”

IPCC 2007 Report’s Working Group II:  Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability:  Summary for policymakers:

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds)

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Web. Accessed July 8th 2013

Norwegian Environment Agency, Impacts of Climate Change in Norway, 04.01.2013, accessed July 8th 2013. Web.

Norway's Contribution to Climate Change

Work Cited From:  http://rowdy.mscd.edu/~kschuene/mtr1600/summer/Keeling.xlsx

This graph is called a Keeling Curve, and it represents the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that is measured in the atmosphere during the 1960-current time period. The carbon dioxide measurements are a mixture of the CO2 that the Earth releases naturally, as well as unnatural emissions.

CO2 Data Was Taken From http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/swe.html

Research Questions: 

1a) Norway seems to have a higher amount of liquid carbon dioxide emissions versus the rest of the emissions types. The only anomaly in the data is that solid contributions seemed to rising steadily until around 1935, then experienced a sharp drop off. 

1b) The country starting emitting larger amounts of carbon dioxide around 1960. This spike in the data corresponds with the discovery of oil in the North Sea petroleum reserves, which led to the beginning of oil and gas production in the country. 

2a) The Per Capita CO2 Emissions Estimate graph shows a 2.8 metric tons of carbon per person in the country of Norway. When compared to the United States, which is currently at 4.9 metric tons, the average Norwegian emits just 57% compared to a person in the United States. This is largely due to the fact that the total emissions for Norway are nothing compared to those of the United States as a whole (refer to the Total Fossil Fuel Emissions Graph)

2b) Norway is ranked 30th in the list of country's per capita CO2 emissions, while the United States is ranked 12th. As a blogger representing the country of Norway, this makes me happy that even though Norway is a first world country who is also an oil producer, they are much further down on the list then the United States. 

3a) Norway is right around the same rank as Kenya, and has much less emissions than the countries of India, China and the United States, though I am surprised that India doesn't have more emissions. I would have thought it would rank closer to the United States or China, especially because they have so many people. 

3b) Clearly, the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2008 was China, which is not surprising considering the vastness of the country and the amount of people living there.

3c) Although the United States has far less people than China (312 million versus 1.33 billion) I can't help but feel that a United States citizen is more to blame for their emissions than a Chinese citizen. This is mainly because China is a communist country, and most citizens do not have control over what their government does. However in the United States each individual is responsible for the appointed officials that are elected into office. These representatives are responsible for our current climate initiative and the citizens are responsible for electing those people. Also in the United States I feel citizens are made far more aware of their ecological footprint and should be making strides, however small, towards creating less of an environmental impact. 

3d) List of Cumulative Contributions to Climate Change (in order of most to least)  

1. United States: 91,229,888

2. China: 31,793,558

3. India: 9,151,461

4. Italy: 5,364,817

5. Kenya: 80,124

6. Norway: 538,315

*These values are recorded in thousand metric tons

3e) China's emissions are almost exactly 1/3rd of the amount of the United States, and India's emissions are almost exactly 1/10th of the amount of the United States. This shows that even though India and China are both much larger than the United States and have hundreds of millions more citizens, the United States still emits the largest amount of emissions per capita. 

4. Both the Keeling Curve and the Total Fuel Emissions are rising steadily over time. Emissions are different than concentrations because emissions are the amount of carbon dioxide that a country is releasing into the air, while concentrations are the amount of particles currently in the atmosphere. However the two are related in a positive feedback loop because as more emissions are released into the atmosphere, concentrations levels of carbon dioxide will keep increasing as well. 

References: 

 *All information and numbers in this blog were retrieved from one of the following sites

(http://www.norway.org/aboutnorway/history/after1814/postww2/)

http://www.skepticalscience.com/CO2-emissions-correlation-with-CO2-concentration.htm>

http://rowdy.mscd.edu/~kschuene/mtr1600/summer/Keeling.xlsx

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/top2008.cap