Impacts of Climate Change

This information was taken from: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-3-3-2.html This graph shows projected temperature increase until the year 2099 (top row), precipitation patterns (middle row) and estimated number of models that project increase in precipitation (bottom row)

The model projections for climate change throughout Europe indicate a warming that is consistent, if not slightly higher, than the projected warming models for overall global temperature. Based on a few different models, the projected temperature changes vary from the "best scenario" models at 2.3 degrees C to the "worst case" scenario 5.3 degrees C. This is an extremely large number and is also a bit scary, seeing as recent history shows us that the worst case scenario models have sometimes underestimated warming and global emission trends. Also the warming and precipitation in the northern parts of Europe, with countries such as Norway, will be greater in the winter time as opposed to the mediterranean summer which is projected to become hotter and drier. The other issue worthy of noting is the projections for the northern European countries to have much shorter winters, less snow cover and rapid ice melting near and on the Baltic Sea.

As far as future impacts and vulnerabilities for European countries, the situation differs greatly depending on what part of the European country is being focused on. With the increase in the summer temperatures of southern Europe comes an increasing demand for water, a higher risk of wild fires and potential crop failures. The extreme high temperatures could also negatively impact an area of great monetary value to these countries: tourism. In northern Europe, the increase in temperature during the winter time could have some positive aspects to it, such as less demand for heat and a longer growing season for crops. However, problems are soon to abound in the form of a changing ecosystem and landscape. 

To summarize the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC), there is a very high belief that widespread climate change is impacting the entire European continent. Because Europe occupies so much land mass, all the way from the mediterranean to the arctic circle, the impacts of the warming trend will vary from region to region. With a higher heat index in the Mediterranean, the demand for water supply with greatly increase; people will need more water to survive, as well as more water for crop production. On the other end of the spectrum, the increase in temperatures in the northernmost countries leaves room for melting ice and glaciers with can lead to an increase in coastal flooding. This puts many people along the coasts of countries, such as Norway, in a high danger flood zone. 

Norway has a danger of losing the longevity of their winters. This is a problem not only on the biological scale, but impacts different sectors of the Norwegian economy as well. A milder winter climate means that the boreal forests native to Norway will have a longer growing season, and the overall volume of standing trees is expected to increase. Along with the land temperature increase, the oceans and lakes will have a higher annual range of temperature as well. This leaves room for fish and plants who prefer a warmer climate, to head further north and increase in volume. Also, melting of Arctic seas ice will threaten species and could possibly increase ocean acidity as well. 

Because Norway is such a mountainous region, the impacts of a warmer climate will also be felt with the rising of the treeline into the now arctic tundra. This will effect the animals that have adapted to living in these high altitude environments as their territory slowly shrinks. The change in the mountain landscape will also greatly effect one of the countries biggest recreational activities: skiing. With shorter winters and less snow cover, the mountains can expect bad future ski seasons and may have to reconsider the avenues in which tourism should continue to explore. 

This information was obtained from the following:

IPCC “Climate Change 2007:  Working Group 1:  The physical science basis Chapter 11:  Regional Climate Projections”

IPCC 2007 Report’s Working Group II:  Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability:  Summary for policymakers:

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds)

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Web. Accessed July 8th 2013

Norwegian Environment Agency, Impacts of Climate Change in Norway, 04.01.2013, accessed July 8th 2013. Web.